Victoria's three flagship Big Build projects — West Gate Tunnel, Metro Tunnel, and North East Link — have collectively blown out by $19 billion from their original combined budget of $25 billion. The VAGO found all three suffered from undercooked business cases, optimism bias in cost estimates, and inadequate contractor risk allocation.
Enter your postcode. We'll find your MP and pre-draft a letter about Major Transport Infrastructure Authority's $19.0B in waste — ready to send from your email.
Opens your email app with a pre-filled message. You send it — we don't collect your name or email.
$19.0B of Australian taxpayer money was wasted at Major Transport Infrastructure Authority. Victoria's three flagship Big Build projects — West Gate Tunnel, Metro Tunnel, and North East Link — have collectively blown out by $19 billion from their original combined budget of $25 billion. The VAGO found all three suffered from undercooked business cases, optimism bias in cost estimates, and inadequate contractor risk allocation.
Spread across Australia's 10.8 million households, that's roughly $1,759 per family — enough in total for funding roughly 158 public hospitals for a full year.
Victoria's 'Big Build' program was the centrepiece of the Andrews government's infrastructure agenda. Three signature projects: West Gate Tunnel (WGT), Metro Tunnel (MTT), and North East Link (NEL). Declared costs at announcement: WGT $6.7B → now $11.3B (+69%, +$4.6B); MTT $11B → now $14.8B (+35%, +$3.8B); NEL $15.8B → now $26.1B (+65%, +$10.3B). Combined blowout: $18.7B, or a 75% aggregate overrun. VAGO 2022 audit of the West Gate Tunnel found: the business case BCR was 1.04 (barely positive) but this assumed a toll regime that the government later modified, rendering the original BCR invalid; risk transfer to the contractor (CPB/John Holland consortium) was inadequate — design risk was retained by the State; and the 2020 PFAS contamination dispute led to a $6.4B contract extension with the consortium after the State accepted liability for asbestos and PFAS disposal costs. Metro Tunnel: the original 2016 $11B estimate excluded Footscray Road tunnel works ($1.2B), station precinct development ($0.9B), and systems integration ($1.7B). VAGO 2021 found the omissions were identified during business case development but excluded to keep the headline number below $12B for approval. North East Link: VAGO 2023 found the project faced $4.3B in cost increases driven by material cost escalation and contractor claims that the State bore under the alliance contract structure.
Every share puts pressure on the people responsible. Make it impossible to ignore.
I send every new finding. Daily. No fluff.